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TOP SECRET COPY NO. 5
J.I.C.
REPORT BY THE DIRECTOR OF
INTELLIGENCE, USAF
to the
JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
on
UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS
THE PROBLEM
To advise the Joint Intelligence Committee
of the findings of the Directorate of Intelligence, USAF, regarding the
sightings of unidentified aerial objects and the Air Force organization
established for further investigation and solution of the problem.
FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM
2. Following the great number of reported
sightings of flying discs during the summer of 1947, Hq, Air Material
Command, in a letter dated 23 September 1947, requested that the
Commanding General, Army Air Forces, issue a directive assigning a
priority, security classification and code name for a detailed study of
flying disc reports. Hq, Air Material Command explained that their
action was based on the opinion that phenomena reported appeared to be
real and that there were objects in existence which would approximate
the shape of a disc. AMC concluded that some incidents might be caused
by natural phenomena but that some incidents described characteristics
which suggested evasive tactics. Awaiting a specific directive, Hq, AMC
continued to collect information on flying disc incidents in order to
more clearly define the nature of the phenomena. On the
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22nd of December 1947, in a
memorandum, "Analysis of Flying Disc Reports." The Director of
Intelligence concurred with Air Material Command's recommendation and
forwarded their letter to the Director of Research and Development,
DCS/M for reply.
3. In a letter dated 30 December 1947, the
Director of Research and Development, DCS/M, advised the Commanding
General, AMC, that Air Force policy was not to ignore reports of
sightings and phenomena in the atmosphere but to recognize that part of
its mission is to collect, evaluate and act on information of this
nature. To implement this policy it was directed that Hq, Air Material
Command set up a project with the purpose of collecting, collating,
evaluating, and distributing to interested government agencies and
contractors, all information concerning sightings and phenomena in the
atmosphere which could be construed to be of concern to the national
security. This directive assigned a priority of 2-A to the project, a
RESTRICTED classification, and a code name of "SIGN".
4. At Air Material Command the Technical
Intelligence Division was assigned the responsibility for accomplishing
this mission with the full assistance of all divisions and activities
within Air Material Command to permit successful completion of the
project. The cooperation of the Army, Navy, Coast Guard and F.B.I. was
solicited in order to facilitate the forwarding and investigation of all
reports. Arrangements were effected for handling such reports directly
with Air Material Command.
5. In addition to the collection, analysis and
investigation activities directed by the project personnel at Hq, Air
Material Command, Air Intelligence Memorandum dated 6 August 1948, (sic
really 27 July, 1948) subject: "Flying Saucers", required that a study
be made by the Air Intelligence Division to examine the pattern of
tactics of reported flying saucers and develop conclusions as to their
probability. The results of this analysis were prepared as Air
Intelligence Division (DI/USAF-ONI) Study No. 203,
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"Analysis of Flying Object
Incidents in the United States." The Directorate of Intelligence has
maintained close liaison with Project "SIGN" activities in order that
appropriate staff sections of Head- quarters, USAF may be adequately
advised on the entire subject of unidentified aerial phenomena reports.
6. The code name of "SIGN" for the project was
changed to "GRUDGE" by a request on 16 December 1948 by the Director of
Research and Development, DCS/M, Hq, USAF. "GRUDGE" under the U.S. Joint
Services Code Word Index refers to the title "Detailed Study of Flying
Discs."
ASSUMPTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
7. Hq, Air Material Command will continue its
investigations under project "GRUDGE" and the Directorate of
Intelligence, USAF, will maintain close liaison with that Command in
order to advise Staff sections on the subject of unidentified aerial
objects.
8. See Appendix "A" for discussion of the
problem and conclusions drawn therefrom.
RECOMMENDATIONS
9. It is recommended that the Joint Intelligence
Committee:
a. Furnish the Director of
Intelligence, USAF, with comments on this paper.
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APPENDIX "A"
UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS
FACTS AND DISCUSSION
1. As of 10 March 1949, a total of 256 incidents
involving unidentified aerial objects had been recorded, under Project
"SIGN". The majority of these were domestic observations but there were
many from reports from foreign sources. In each incident the observers
have been interrogated by investigators and the results have been
analyzed by technical personnel.
2. Condensed summaries have been prepared on
each incident to provide basic information to individuals and agencies
having a responsibility or interest in the project.
3. The extreme lack of accurate observed details
and the unpre- dictable occurrence of incidents have made positive
identification extremely difficult. Data on unidentified aerial objects
has grouped the incidents as follows
23.3% - Discs
43.0% - Spherical or elliptical shape (including balls of fire)
6.0% - Cylindrical shape
2.5% - Winged objects
32.2% - Shapes other than those above
4. In order to identify ordinary and
conventional objects, that have probably been included in the list of
reported incidents, graphical methods have been applied as follows:
5. Prepared graphical data includes:
- Charts concerning unidentified aerial
objects, to indicate:
- Type of object observed
- Vicinity in which particular type of object
was observed
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(3) Direction of flight
- b. Locations of guided missiles, research and
related centers
- c. Locations of airlines, airfields, both
military and commercial
- d. Locations of radio beacon stations
- e. Known or projected radar stations from
which reports and assistance may be derived.
- f. Meteorological stations from which balloon
release data, radiosonde or theodolite readings may be obtained.
- g. Past, current, and projected celestial
phenomena.
- h. Flight paths of migratory birds
6. A psychological analysis of the reported data
is being prepar- ed by Aero-Medical Laboratory, AMC, for the purpose of
determining those incidents that are probably based upon errors of the
human mind and senses. A preliminary verbal report from the professional
psychologists indicates that a considerable number of incidents can be
explained as ordinary occurrences that have been misrepresented, as the
result of human errors.
7. Specialist services, supplementary to those
of AMC technical offices, are being provided by a number of agencies.
8. The Air Weather Service has reviewed incident
data and has provided the information that 24 of the first 172 coincide,
both with respect to location and time, with the release of weather
balloons.
9. The Ohio State University has contracted with
AMC to supply astronomical services in an effort to identify meteors,
planetoids and associated phenomena. Professor Hynek, Ohio State
University Astro- physicist and head of the University Observatory has
reviewed the incident summary sheets.
10. Preliminary report of Dr. Hynek, indicates
that 30 per cent of the first 200 incidents are positively attributable
to astronomical phenomena, and 45 per cent could be explained on the
basis of such
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phenomena or the sighting of
weather balloons and other objects. This gives a total of 75 per cent of
all incidents with possible explanation.
11. Members of the Scientific Advisory Board to
the Chief of Staff, USAF, who have provided consultant services to
Project "Grudge", include Dr. Irving Langmuir, Chief, General Electric
Research and Dr. G. E. Valley of MIT.
12. Dr. G. E. Valley has displayed an active
interest in Project "Grudge" to the extent of reviewing the reported
incidents and writing an overall type of analysis in which he groups the
various objects and then analyses each group from the standpoint of
scientific feasibility.
13. Inasmuch as various surmises have been
advanced that some of the reported observations may have represented
"space ships" or satellite vehicles, a special study has been initiated
with the Rand Corporation, under the Rand Project, to provide an
analysis from this standpoint and also to provide fundamental
information, pertaining to the basic design and performance
characteristics that might distinguish a possible "space ship." Rand
Corporation has also informed AMC that their analysis of all incidents
leads them to the conclusion that there is nothing in any reported
incidents which would go against a rational explanation.
14. The Weather Bureau Library of the Department
of Commerce has supplied information on "ball lightning." This was
requested because of the belief by some persons that some of the
observations may have represented "ball lightning." It appears that the
subject of "ball lightning" occupies an undetermined status and
authorities are not at all convinced that such a phenomenon actually
exists.
15. On 8 April 1949 the repeated occurrence of
green fireball phenomena in New Mexico was discussed with Dr. Joseph
Kaplan, member of the USAF Scientific Advisory Board. This phenomenon
has caused
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considerable concern on the part
of Hq. Fourth Army and has occupied the interests of Dr. Lincoln LaPaz
of the University of New Mexico. Dr. LaPaz believes that the phenomena
are not meteorites. Because of Dr. LaPaz' outstanding ability for
accurate observation and his experiences in identification of meteoritic
phenomena, Dr. Kaplan ex- pressed the belief that the green fireball
phenomena should be further investigated. Dr. Kaplan's views and this
phenomena were discussed on 12 April 1948 with Dr. Theodore von Karman,
Chairman, USAF Scientific Advisory Board, who feels that the problem is
more properly in the field of upper atmosphere research than the field
of intelligence.
16. A summary of the incidents reported would
indicate that:
a. All incidents which coincide with
explainable aerial activities or recorded natural phenomena should be
eliminated from further consideration.
b. Creditable unexplained incidents
involving light phenomena should be further investigated and analyzed by
highly competent scientists who can establish the identity either within
or without the limits of known natural phenomena.
c. Creditable unexplained incidents which
might involve the use of atomic powered craft of u(nu)sual design should
be considered jointly by the Atomic Energy Commission and highly
competent aero-dynamicists to determine the necessity for further
consideration of such incidents by National Defense Intelligence
Agencies.
CONCLUSIONS
17. The majority of reported incidents are
reliable to the extent that they have involved the sighting of some
object or light phenomenon.
18. In spite of the lack of accurate data
provided by witnesses, the majority of reported incidents have been
caused by misidentifica-
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tion of weather balloons, high
altitude balloons with lights and/or electronic equipment, meteors,
bolides, and the planet Venus.
19. There are numerous reports from reliable and
competent observers for which a conclusive explanation has not been
made. Some of these involve descriptions which would place them in the
category of new manifestations of probable natural phenomena but others
involve configurations and described performance which might conceivably
represent an advanced aerodynamical development. A few unexplained
incidents surpass these limits of credibility.
20. It is unlikely that a foreign power would
expose a superior aerial weapon by a prolonged ineffectual penetration
of the United States.
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